Market price trend slows down, HDI market where to go from here

Recent HDI curing agent market price surge situation tends to slow down, many downstream coating customers on the HDI curing agent trend in the second half of the year some confusion, I will analyze the second half of the HDI market from the following aspects.

Hexamethylenediamine is still tight price firm

In the first quarter of the southern United States suffered a rare snowfall, freezing weather, two hexanedinitrile, adipic acid diamine production giants INVISTA and Ao Shengde’s local factories all declared force majeure to the previous day has not been lifted, to maintain a low load, maintenance continued; and Europe’s main adiponitrile adipic acid diamine production unit – located in France’s Butachimie The main adiponitrile adiponitrile production plant in Europe – Butachimie in France, the average plant startup continues to be sluggish, and only improved recently. Global adiponitrile mainly from Europe and the United States above plant, although nylon and other downstream resistance to high prices is getting stronger, but at present the supply of adiponitrile is still insufficient, the price is firm, support strong.

Downstream demand market outlook

21 years since the beginning of the raw material prices continue to rise, resulting in the cost of coatings enterprises straight up, the main raw materials in the coating industry in the cost of more than 80%, and the coatings companies have also tried to pass on the cost pressure by means of price increases. But the paint industry concentration compared to adipic acid and HDI and other raw materials is weak, cost conduction is slower, especially small customers and other retail price negotiation ability is poor, profit margins are further squeezed, the production willingness is low, the industry’s overall growth rate is weak down. But looking ahead to the second half of the year, the United States fiscal policy is positive, abundant global liquidity, high inflation; the smooth recovery of the European economy will also be to a certain extent to boost domestic exports; domestic infrastructure is expected to speed up in the second half of the year, consumer goods inflation is still slowing upward, the PPI in the second half of the year will still be at a high level, it is expected that in the second half of the year, especially branded coatings manufacturers growth rate will remain strong.

HDI supply changes

The annual inspection of Japanese manufacturer Asahi Kasei’s curing agent unit has begun this month, and is expected to last for 30 days; Wanhua is the largest manufacturer of domestic HDI series capacity, and its HDI monomer unit will also begin a large-scale overhaul in July, and is expected to last for more than 30 days; in addition to the impact of the overhaul, from the fourth quarter of 2020 to the present, the supply of HDI curing agent has always been tight, and the gap between supply and demand is always unrepaired. Various suppliers limited discount supply, inventory level is always at a low level.

Summarizing the above influencing factors, I think HDI curing agent will still be in the second half of the longer period of time to maintain the trend of tight prices.